Potential 5.56 & 7.62 NATO Price Fluctuations Coming?

Could the U.S. Army’s shift to a 6.8 mm cartridge for close-combat troops could inadvertently trigger price fluctuations on 5.56 NATO and 7.62 NATO ammunition? Read on:

by
posted on April 21, 2024
** When you buy products through the links on our site, we may earn a commission that supports NRA's mission to protect, preserve and defend the Second Amendment. **
Approaching Trend
Image courtesy of author.

The U.S. Army’s shift to a 6.8 mm cartridge for close-combat troops will trigger 5.56 NATO market fluctuations in the next few years. History indicates enthusiasts can expect prices to potentially decline, initially, followed by slow rise to a price plateau. It’s the U.S. Army’s widespread fielding of its Next Generation Squad Weapons System (NGSWS) to combat troops—chambered in that 6.8 mm cartridge—to blame.

It doesn’t take a crystal ball to make that prediction, either. The .30-‘06 Sprg. cartridge provides a roadmap for the approaching trend.

The U.S. military officially adopted the .30-’06 Sprg. in 1906. With improved accuracy and fight-stopping performance downrange, it soon found itself in the hands of our soldiers across the globe with M1 Garands, M1903 Springfield bolt actions and others.

By the late 1950s, the 5.56 NATO and 7.62 NATO cartridges were being methodically phased into frontline service. It wasn’t until the late 1970s that the .30-’06 Sprg. was officially retired. In the meantime, factories churning out the volume required for marksmanship practice, strategic stockpiles and combat shifted production emphasis.

Surplus became readily available on the commercial market and prices for .30-’06 Sprg. ammo dropped dramatically. The March 1986 issue of American Rifleman magazine even proclaimed it was available for “pennies per round” during the 1960s.

That kind of savings is enough to catch the attention of any enthusiast. Inflation, however, enters the equation. Five cents in 1960 converts to roughly a half dollar, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator. Today you’re paying nearly a buck a round for inexpensive .30-’06 Sprg.

Today’s situation is slightly different, though. Troops whose duty isn’t primarily combat will still be issued rifles chambered in 5.56 NATO and 7.62 NATO. Those cartridges haven’t quite reached retirement age, which means the entire ammunition surplus won’t swell FFL shelves in an overnight tsunami. Those in uniform using them, however, don’t live-fire practice as often, or require the same strategic stockpile. Excess will potentially be released at a pace that reflects that reduced annual consumption and wartime requirements.

Latest

Springfield Armory SA-35 4"
Springfield Armory SA-35 4"

Review: Springfield Armory SA-35 4"

Springfield Armory has made its SA-35 High Power clone even more appealing to those interested in a compact, concealed-carry pistol with a new 4-inch barreled version of its SA-35.

Legacy Sports International Expands Howa Bolt-Action Rifle Lineup

Japanese-made Howa M1500 rifles continue to be some of the best value-for-the-money bolt-actions on the market, and for 2026, the company is adding two new models, along with a new chambering.

The Armed Citizen® Aug. 17, 2026

Read today's "The Armed Citizen" entry for real stories of law-abiding citizens, past and present, who used their firearms to save lives.

Skills Check: The Tabula Rasa Method

Too many shooters step onto the range carrying the emotional residue of every missed shot, every bad stage and every ugly drill from the last six months like a tactical backpack full of disappointment. The Tabula Rasa method is designed to change that relationship.

Canadian Law Enforcement Agencies Select Federal Ammunition

Federal Ammunition will supply the Canadian Department of National Defense and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police with rifle and shotgun ammunition, respectively.

Shooting Surplus: Finding Affordable Mil-Surp Ammo in 2026

Today, the market for mil-surp ammo is vastly different than it was even just a few years ago. If you're a military-surplus collector and shooter, what should you look for in 2026? Here's our guide.

Interests



Get the best of American Rifleman delivered to your inbox.