Fear & Loading: Gun Sales—Up Nearly 16 Points in August

by
posted on September 25, 2019
9-percent-increase.jpg

National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figures from August indicate firearm sales were up nearly 16 percent in August when compared to the same period in 2018. “Likely single handgun sales (632,415) increased year-over-year by 19.5% while single long-gun sales (430,838) increased year over-year by 7.7%. All other likely background check-related sales (97,294) increased year-over-year by 33.3%,” Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) wrote in a Sept. 14 press release.

The increase comes on the heels of modest gains posted in July, June and May, although SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer warns it’s still too early to predict whether this year’s total will beat 2018’s numbers. “After sluggish winter, spring, and early summer sales, August sales jumped up to a considerable extent,” he said. “Year-to-date sales still are running about 200,000 units below those of 2018 (8.6 million vs 8.8 million). As the industry enters its crucial fall and year-end holiday season, unit sales will rise but whether last year’s totals will be exceeded remains to be seen, of course.”  

The number of NICS checks processed by the FBI in August was 2,366,824, nearly 300,000 greater than last year’s 2,073,296 for the month. The figure set a new all-time high for the reporting period.

Raw NICS figures or even a percentage thereof can be wildly misleading when attempting to gauge firearm sales. Concealed carry background checks conducted through the system last month in Kentucky alone added to the total by more than 300,000.

Hasty calculations recommended elsewhere that are based on a percentage of raw numbers can be significantly off—in the past four months by as much as nearly 9 percent, or short 189,000 guns. In August, SAAF estimates 1,160,547 of the NICS checks reflected a new gun purchase. That converts to a little more than 49 percent. Conversely, in May the 2,349,309 records processed by the FBI included 957,547 firearm sales, according to the organization. That comes in significantly lower, at roughly 41 percent.  

 

 

Latest

Precision Rimfire Christensen Arms
Precision Rimfire Christensen Arms

Review: Christensen Arms Modern Precision Rimfire Rifle

The Modern Precision Rimfire from Christensen Arms builds upon time-honored blueprints and is crafted from its maker's flash-forged carbon-fiber technology to create an accurate and fun-to-shoot repeating rifle.

New For 2025: H&K MR A4 Series

Building on its existing commercial line of MR556 and MR762 rifles, HK USA now offers A4 versions of both rifles, as well as large-format pistol variants.

Gun Of The Week: Smith & Wesson Model 1854

Welcome to another American Rifleman Gun Of The Week video, and this time we have a modernized American lever-action to take to the range. Meet the Smith & Wesson Model 1854.

New For 2025: Kimber 2K11

With its new 2K11, Kimber now has a dedicated design based on the 2011 concept that comes loaded with a number of added features.

The Armed Citizen® Nov. 22, 2024

Read today's "The Armed Citizen" entry for real stories of law-abiding citizens, past and present, who used their firearms to save lives.

Red Fifty: The Soviet 12.7 mm DShK Heavy Machine Gun

While the Browning .50-cal. M2 machine gun has been unequaled for more than a century, John Moses Browning’s genius design has had one significant 12.7 mm competitor: the Soviet DShK.

Interests



Get the best of American Rifleman delivered to your inbox.